Tendency survey for manufacturing industries

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Purpose and history
The purpose of The tendency survey for manufacturing industries is to provide rapid and current data on the business cycle in Danish manufacturing industries, comprising data on current judgments over the preceding period and data on future expectations. The tendency survey is a supplement to other short-term statistics. To this is added information on a number of factors considered difficult to extract from the traditional statistics.

The survey was established in 4th quarter of 1963. In 1980 the survey was adapted to the questions in the existing EC harmonised surveys. Up until 1997 there has been a continuos adaptation to new questions requested by the EC/EU. From 1998 the survey is completety harmonised with the surveys in other EU Member States through a change from quarterly to monthly frequency.

Description of Contents
The Tendency survey for manufacturing industries, which has been changed from a quarterly to a monthly frequency in January 1998, is intended to provide rapid and current data on the business cycle. The survey provides qualitative information on the current situation as well as expectations for the coming three months. The most important variables are production, employment, new orders, sales prices, investment plans and limits to production.

Statistical Concepts
Population. The basic information is collected from a representative sample of enterprises employing at least 20 persons. The sample is based on Kind of Activity Units (KAU's) as the observation units. A KAU is a group of local units with identical activity code belonging to the same enterprise.

Variables. It is a characteristic feature of the method used that the management of the responding enterprises should be able to answer the questions without any elaborate analysis, since they are primarily requested to indicate by a checkmark whether a given economic variable, e.g. production is up, largely unchanged or down for the survey period, compared to the preceding period. The questions concern both future expectations and current judgment over the preceding period.
In answering other questions the responding enterprises are asked to measure, e.g. their stocks of unfilled orders at the end of the period in relation to the normal situation. The respondents are also requested to indicate any limits to total production activities, and if so, indicate the causes of these.

From January 1998 the tendency survey for manufacturing industries is based on both quarterly and monthly data.

As far as quarterly data are concerned the coverage of the tendency survey is largely similar to that of former surveys. It comprises 22 questions and is enlarged by questions concerning new export orders received and sales prices. The quarterly data relate to January, April, July and October.

As far as monthly data are concerned the coverage of the tendency survey is lower and comprises questions concerning production, sales prices, unfilled orders, export orders and stocks of finished goods and from May 2002 also employment. The monthly data relate to all months. The data for January, April, July and October are part of the quarterly data.

Grossing-up. The results from each establishment are being weighted in relation to the size of employment of the establishments. The weighted figures are published as percentages adding up to 100. E.g. 35 percent up, 50 percent unchanged and 15 percent down for production in the latest 3-month period compared with the preceding 3-month period. Meaning that establishments representing 35 percent of employment have replied a rise in production and 15 percent a fall in production.

The difference between the percentages for up and down is called the balance figure.

In the interpretation of the figures e.g. for production the attention is drawn to the fact that the balance gives no direct information on the absolute growth or decline. An expected rise in production in the capital goods industries by a balance figure of 20 percent does not reflect an expected rise by 20 percent. Instead the figure reflects that enterprises representing 20 percent (net) of employment in the sector expects a rise in production. For the enterprises expecting a rise the actual expected rise may vary from quite insignificant to very significant.

On the basis of information on stocks of finished goods and total stocks of orders at the end of the preceding month and future production expectations of the respondent enterprises during the coming 3 months, Statistics Denmark compiles a composite confidence indicator showing expectations for the next 3 months. From January 1998 the indicator is compiled monthly.

The values of the confidence indicator constitute a simple average of the balance figures for the indicators mentioned. However, for stocks of finished goods the balance figures are included with opposite signs as growing stocks of finished goods are assumed to have a negative effect on future production activities.


Data is published for 14 industry groupings covering manufacturing and mining and quarrying (excluding extrraction of crude petroleum and natural gas). The industry grouping is based on the harmonised 4-digit classification of economic activities of The European Union (NACE Revision 2). Also data is grouped according to the main use of the output, capital goods, durable consumers goods, non-durable consumers goods and intermediate goods.

  Read more about the statistics on 'Tendency Survey for Manufacturing Industries' in our Declarations of contents

Releases

Last updated:	30 August 2010
Scheduled releases:	29 September 2010 for the period September 2010

Contact

Christian Andreasen
Telephone:	+ 45 39 17 30 88
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